philohoopis

So after the debacle that was posted on my myspace last year about the NBA Draft and my 8 team trade, which would have ruined what was arguably the best NBA season in over 2 decades,  I have a new NBA  Draft prediction. Well it’s not so much a prediction of what will happen but what should happen and more importantly what will be attempted but ultimately won’t work out. Hopefully I won’t have to delete my account in shame again this year but here goes …………

First of all I have my picks of how the first round should go if teams where all planning to keep the picks they make. I did this at espn.com and have a link to it here where you can compare my picks to the so called “Draft Insider” Chad Ford, and the espn nation fan consensus.

Now to the fun….

I’m basically a  Trailblazers fan to the exclusion of the rest of the league at this point in my fandom career, so that’s the team I focus on here, but luckily that still means I ‘ll start with the Chicago Bulls.

I know there is a lot of debate about Beasley or Rose, but in my mind for John Paxson there really is only one choice that makes basketball sense for the organization.  Year ago everyone , myself included thought the Bulls were ready to compete at for the East. Then they had  a complete melt down. As the dust settles, the Bulls have a new coach, they have rid them selves of the Albatross that was Ben Wallace, they have the choice, thanks to restricted free agency, to pay Deng or Gordon or both, and they have the number one pick in the draft. Things are looking up. Your only 12 months removed from thinking you could contend for the division with all the key pieces still around and you get to add a super stud rookie of your choice as a capstone to what is supposed to be a very good basketball team. The most glaring need this teams has is an inside scoring presence, to balance the perimeter oriented offense. Michael Beasley fills that void and is a can’t miss NBA star to boot.  Even if you believe that Derrick rose may be the better pro when their hall of fame careers are over, you can’t deny that Beasley will improve the Bulls immediately. Beasley can step in a fill the role the team has open. Drafting Rose means at least moderate restructuring of this roster.

Paxson is on the hot seat. If he drafts Rose he is obligated to make at least 2 moves to fill out the roster.  1, he almost certainly has to move Gordon or Heinrich, preferable Heinrich. 2.) he still has to address the need of an inside scoring presence, which if you fallow the NBA you know is difficult to do. Steady pgs and streaky scorers are abundant in the NBA; a constant inside scoring threat is a rare commodity.  Maybe he can move Heinrich for a quality low post scorer that can run with Rose and kill two birds with one stone, but I doubt it.  Essentially, taking Rose means the Bulls will be rebuilding for at least a year. As much as the Chicago fan base wants to see the home boy Rose in uniform, they would much rather see a Michael Beasley playing in the conference finals than Rose loosing in round 1.  Paxson would prefer this too because a round 1 exit most likly means he loses his Job. Of course if they take Beasley and still suck, Pax is out too.  Stick to your game plan , draft the can’t miss player that fills a need not the can’t miss player with sentimentality who you will have to rebuild around.

Now I have to admit although if I was John Paxson I’d take Beasley in a heartbeat, I’m also rooting for him to go first because that will open the door for Portland to land Derrick Rose.  Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard is an excellent evaluator of talent and possesses a very smart basketball mind. He also is obsessed with landing a next level point guard.  So much so that he keeps using what amount to temps ( No offense to the likes of Steve Blake,  who is competent and reliable to keep the team completive but not a long term answer, or the likes of Sergio Rodriguez and My boy Torrean Green out of Florida in the 2^nd round as potential diamonds in the rough) at the position, biding his time until he can snag one of the elite. The logic around P-town was get every other position loaded and locked down and clear the cap space to make a run at Chris Paul or Deron Williams in 2009, as the final piece to the Championship puzzle. But at this point it’s pretty obvious those 2 are on contenders and their teams will remain contenders for the next decade as long as those 2 are running the show.  There will be no free agent PG coups after next season. And so the future is now and Derrick rose is the elite point guard now. The Blazers have the young talent to pull off the heist and circumstances are just right for them to do so, provided the Bulls take Beasley at 1.

If the Bulls take Beasley, that puts

Miami on the clock.
Miami has made no secret that with a versatile combo guard like Dwayne Wade, they are more interested in another athletic scoring combo guard, a’la OJ Mayo. The Heat have also indicated they would like to trade the pick in hopes of landing 2 quality players in return.

And there in lies the opportunity KP covets. Mark my words. Fearless prediction of the NBA Draft: the Blazers will offer Travis Outlaw, the 13^th pick, All star guard and the best player on the team, Brandon Roy, and cap filler to the
Miami heat for Marc Blunt and the rights to Derek Rose.

I know that sounds stupid, and pointless, trading the two most proven players on the team for a rookie, no matter how good is too steep of  a  price, and Kevin Pritchard would never do that. Yes, He would. He should. He will. He may already have.  

Here’s why…..

As mentioned above, KP is obsessed with PG’s. He believes they are the key to a Championship team. As the Blazers stand right now, they have the center spot anchored for the next decade in Oden, the inside/outside scoring threat in Aldridge. They are convinced that Rudy Fernandez will come over and be an immediate impact player at the 2 guard position. On a Nate McMillan team, the small forward spot is a defensive stopper and spot up shooter, a’la Ime Udoka in 2007, or the two headed monster of James Jones/ Martell Webster of last year. Basically Nate doesn’t; want star power at the three spot anyway. So that leaves the point Guard Position. Brandon Roy essentially played the PG roll the past two seasons. He was the main ball handler and distributor. He was the team leader. Good things happened when the ball was in his hands for the Trailblazers. However from a defensive stand point he is not going to be applying full court pressure to opposing PG’s.  People keep referring to his “Pace ” on the court which is really just saying he doesn’t attempt to just push the ball down the other teams throat. He is more cerebral and crafty of a player. He really needs the ball in his hands to be effective, and therefore is most useful as a 2 guard that dominates the ball. The Blazers have to decide if
Roy is going to be the PG the long term pieces are built around

. If he’s not then the anticipated arrival of the Great Rudy Fernadez would make
Roy expendable as the key to landing the franchise point guard, whom everyone agrees  Derrick rose will be to whichever team is lucky enough to land him.

On the

Miami side if your serious about wanting Mayo, then you must also want Brandon Roy. They are similar players,
Roy is 3 years older with a proven track record in the league, but he has had some injuries. Mayo is more explosive, but not quiet as big as
Roy.  
Roy is a proven All-Star Talent, Mayo has untapped potential. Basically, choosing between Roy and Mayo is a wash If you have your choice of Drafting Mayo, or getting Roy and Outlaw, you’d take  the 1 plus 1 , over the 1. It’s simple math. Also
Miami would unload the one bad contract they are still on the books for from Pat Reilly’s  patch work last season, in Marc Blunt. And I’d love to say the Blazers could make this deal with out giving up this years 13^th pick, which they should stand to get a pretty decent player from, (such as Brandon Rush to fill that 3 spot) but I bet Reilly (who is still the GM mind you) will extort it from Portland once they make the offer and it’s obvious how badly they want Rose.

So there you have the top 2 picks in the draft. Hopefully tomorrow I will be able to knock out the rest of the lottery. Maybe even the whole first round. I don’t have any more big trade conspiracy theories so I’ll just tell you who the teams should take and why.  So in the mean time, if you see a guy in red 7 tank top, you can come say hello and tell me how wrong I am.  I’ll be wearing my Brandon Roy Blazers Jersey for the next three days, while I still can..

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